India’s GDP is likely to shrink by 7.7pc in FY2021—the first negative GDP since 1980 and the biggest slump since 1952 – compared to the growth rate of 4.2pc in the previous fiscal, according to first Advance Estimates (AE) by the National Statistical Office (NSO) and Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi) on January 7.
Real GDP in FY2021 is likely to be achieved at Rs134.4tn-level as against the provisional estimate of Rs145.6tn-level, a drop of 7.7pc. Nominal GDP for the current fiscal year is likely to be at Rs194.8tn, compared to Rs203.4tn in the prior year indicating a contraction by 4.2pc.
Government expenditure increased by 5.8pc, agriculture sector will grow by 3.4pc and electricity sector by 2.7pc, but construction (12.5pc) and manufacturing (9.4pc) took a hit, according to the data.
The estimates, however, are likely to undergo sharp revisions due to COVID-19 related disruptions which impacted the economic activities and informal sectors faced severe losses, said the statistics body.
India will present the Union budget for FY2021-22 on February 1.
Sector wise First Advance Estimates (FAE)
| Industry | FAE of GVA at Current Prices 2020-21 | FAE percentage change in 2019-20 | FAE of GVA at Constant Prices 2020-21 |
| Manufacturing | -9.4pc | 0.3pc | -8.0pc |
| Mining | -12.4pc | 1.0pc | -25.1pc |
| Construction | -12.6pc | 3.0pc | -12.4pc |