India’s electric vehicle sales will hit a 6.4mn unit sales by 2027 and grow at a CAGR of 44pc between 2020-2027 says Indian Energy Storage Alliance (IESA). Lead-acid battery run vehicles to be out of the EV market in five years.
Electric industry believes that the electric vehicle market will grow very swiftly in the upcoming years as many state governments are planning to shift to electric vehicles from the existing fleet of autorickshaws under their EV policies. Apart from state governments, e-commerce companies are also planning to ramp up vehicle productions and have already announced their targets. Industry’s battery swapping option could be a game changer for lead-acid battery segment and has a potential to disrupt the market, notes IESA.
Annual battery demand is forecasted to grow at 32pc and hit 50GWh by 2027 and around 40+GWh will be on lithium-ion batteries. Indian electric vehicle producers are opting for lithium-ion batteries over lead batteries despite the higher costs as consumers are willing to pay the extra amount for better battery performance, claimed some renowned electric vehicle manufacturers.
The electric-two-wheeler market share was the highest in 2019-20 with low and medium speed e-2W which run upto 40kmph and run on conventional lead-acid batteries are dominating the market. Lead-acid batteries are conventional as they are at par in terms of upfront cost with the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. However, lithium-ion batteries are gaining momentum too after the FAME-II certification in 2020. IESA says that e2W sales of high-speed vehicles will pick up strongly in the next two years.
IESA says that lead-acid battery run e-vehicles are likely to be out of the market in the next-five years. Until then the market is demanding quality 2W models that can compete with the lead-acid ICE vehicles in terms of both cost and performance.
FAME-I and FAME-II schemes have played an important part in driving sales of e-busses in India. Moving ahead, expansion in the e-bus segment will be driven by access to financing and practicability. In 2019, Department of Heavy Vehicles sanctioned 5595 e-busses of which 2500 busses are completed.
Market for e-3Ws have grown robustly in India since 2013. There is still a huge potential for e-rickshaws to grow in the coming years with new markets in Raipur, Bhopal, Orissa, etc. North east and south Indian markets are also gaining momentum. In E-rickshaws, lead-acid batteries continue to dominate the market due to strong after sales services, noted IESA. Around 80-90pc of the newer models are certified and based on lithium-ion batteries.