Markets come under renewed downward pressure as the corrective phase draws to its conclusion.
Copper
Intermediate- to long-term downtrends remain firmly in force and while shorter term trends are still pointed up, the past five weeks’ recovery phase appears to have been poorly based corrective action only. The remaining upside potential could now be rather limited with strong resistance anticipated on approach to the 5,320/40 area with only a clear and sustained break above here capable of extending near-term gains. Unless achieved, values look increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness with the nearest supports now visible starting at 5,080/5,100 then again towards the pivotal 4,940/60 region.
Trading strategy: Holding shorts looking for 4,740 initially and even 4,400. Protecting above 5,340.
Aluminium
Overall bearish patterns are undisturbed, while short-term trends look to have flattened out with a fresh characteristic period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced at present. Expect immediate recovery attempts to be restricted by strong overhead resistances waiting at 1,540/60 initially, and whilst a clear and sustained break back above here could extend near-term gains closer to the 1,600/10 zone, this market remains vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. Supports are now visible starting at 1,480/90 then again towards the historically important 1,430/40 region.
Trading strategy: Having secured profits on shorts, remaining on sidelines for the time being.
Zinc
Medium- to long-term downtrends remain firmly in force with little evidence of a bottom as yet, while short-term trends have flattened out with a fresh period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced now. However, expect immediate recovery attempts to again meet strong overhead resistance at 1,970/80 initially and while a decisive break above here could extend near-term gains, further supply waiting in the 2,050/70 zone should limit the upside potential with this market increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness. Local support is visible starting at 1,860/70 then again towards 1,760/70.
Trading strategy: Continuing to re-establish shorts on bounces looking for a retest of the 1,770 area.
Lead
Medium- to long-term bearish patterns remain firmly intact and while short-term trends are currently rather flat with a period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced, this market is looking vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. The historically important 1,550/60 region could come under fresh examination, which if decisively breached, would trigger acceleration towards the 1,500 and even 1,450 areas prior to better demand being stimulated. However, until achieved, further choppy two-way activity is likely with resistance now visible at 1,670/80 then 1,750/60.
Trading strategy: Continuing to utilize corrective rebounds to probe the short side.
Nickel
The overall bearish outlook remains firmly in force with little evidence of any bottom to this major downward cycle as yet, though short-term trends have turned up with a period of corrective action being experienced now. However, strong overhead resistances waiting at 12,900/13,000 initially, then at 13,400/13,500 should cap gains and unless this upper boundary can be decisively breached, this market appears increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days and weeks ahead. Nearby support should now be anticipated at 11,400/11,500 initially, then again towards 10,800/10,900.
Trading strategy: Monitoring the current corrective bounce for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
Tin
While overall technical studies remain decisively bearish with little evidence of a bottom to this major downward cycle yet, prices look to have uncovered good support on approach to the historically important 13,000/13,100 area with much-needed corrective action currently being experienced. However, in the absence of any significant basing activity, recovery attempts are likely to prove unsustainable at this stage with strong resistance anticipated at 15,500/15,600 initially, then again towards the 17,000/17,100 region with prices remaining vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness. Support now at 14,000/14,100.
Trading strategy: With profits on shorts secured monitoring current correction ahead of re-establishing.
Gold
Medium- to long-term bullish patterns remain firmly in force and while prevailing high levels of volatility suggest deep corrective action is likely to be an ongoing characteristic, prices are expected to trend closer to the 1,800.0 region in the weeks ahead. Interim resistance should again be encountered in and around the 1,745.0/50.0 area although pullbacks should now uncover good support starting in the 1,640.0/45.0 zone. Only a clear and sustained break beneath here would trigger more serious near-term falls and set up a fresh challenge of the more important 1,600.0/05 levels where better demand should be stimulated.
Trading strategy: Would once again look to probe the long side on corrective dips looking for 1,800.0 region.
Silver
While the overall technical outlook remains clearly bearish with lower targets still readable in the weeks ahead, interim objectives in and around the 11.20/40 area have been fulfilled with sharp corrective action currently being experienced. However, this appears poorly based and hence unlikely to prove sustainable at this stage with strong overhead resistances waiting at 16.00/20 initially, then on approach to the 16.80/17.00 zone. Unless this upper boundary can be regained, prices remain vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness with support now waiting at 14.50/70 initially, then 13.70/90.
Trading strategy: Monitoring current sharp corrective bounce for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
The data shown and the views expressed on this sheet are for information purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to trade. Cliff Green Consultancy does not accept any liability for loss or damage suffered through any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading any information provided herein.
Friday, May 01, 2020 | Tel: + 44 (0)7710369208 | www.cliffgreenconsultancy.com | email: cliff_green@hotmail.com